America Faces Two Contrasting Scenarios: Unleashing Israel in the Region or Choosing the Gulf Option Prioritizing Stability, Peace, and Prosperity Over Conflict

Since the dawn of the agricultural revolution, Syria—owing to its strategic position at the intersection of major international and regional strategies—has been a critical battleground and participant in significant power struggles throughout history. When weak, Syria becomes the object of rivalry; when strong, it stands as an equal partner and a source of ideologies, religions, and ideas, historically enriching its human capital and vision due to its geo-strategic location. Presently, Syria faces its weakest moments of sovereignty, occurring simultaneously with escalating tensions among international and regional strategic blocs, while the fragile foundations of "financial peace" rapidly deteriorate.

Several factors exacerbate this instability:

• The fragility of the Bretton Woods system.

• The emergence of powerful competitors to the United States, primarily India and China.

• Significant transformations in economic and political frameworks.

• Crucially, the revolutionary impact of artificial intelligence, altering production dynamics amidst intense competition among major powers, resulting in a new wave of "knowledge imperialism," where the struggle over resources and markets becomes subordinate to the broader financial competition in the knowledge economy.

Following its liberation from Assad’s regime, Syria once again became a focal point of fierce conflict, endangering the nation-building project. With diminished national sovereignty, the Syrian government's attempts to navigate risks and establish stability resemble a captain steering a ship with broken sails and no clear direction. Without bolstering sovereignty through civil peace, national consensus, and strengthened Arab support—particularly from Saudi Arabia—the country risks rapidly descending into further turmoil.

Syria in the Midst of International Conflict

United States:

Washington strives to overcome past sluggishness, indifference, and bias, paying the price for crisis management strategies, exploiting terrorism issues, and relying on precarious balances to manage low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the U.S. is reshaping its regional alliances in line with its broader financial competition strategy, caught between two opposing scenarios:

• Empowering Israel to consolidate regional dominance through military force against Turkey, Iran, and Arab states to maintain balance.

• The Gulf-led option, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, which emphasizes stability, peace, and prosperity, ending the decades-long regional Cold War between Iran and Israel.

During his recent Gulf tour, the U.S. Secretary of State aimed to bolster the Arab-led pathway in collaboration with Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Nevertheless, direct American involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict and ambiguity regarding the Iranian nuclear issue pose serious military risks, considered by many to threaten broader regional stability, especially in Syria.

China:

Beijing confronts challenging decisions as the region is pivotal for its Belt and Road Initiative, with 75% of its raw material and energy imports and 62% of exports passing through regional waters. The U.S. challenge extends beyond economics, aiming to undermine China's geopolitical and geoeconomic presence. Given escalating global rivalry in Syria and its access points, China may find itself compelled to strengthen its position to stabilize the situation.

The Complex Mosaic of Forces in Syria:

Fourteen military forces not aligned with Damascus, representing Israel, Turkey, Russia, and the U.S., alongside ethnic, sectarian, tribal, and extremist jihadist factions—from Uighurs to ISIS—heighten the risk of extremism.

Syria: Regional Historical Crossroads and Strategic Arsenal

Historically, Syria’s geography has served as a bridge between powerful military, economic, and demographic civilizations, balancing western continental empires—Greek, Iranian, Roman, and Arab—with competing powers on the Iranian plateau, including Turks, Armenians, and Byzantines.

Ground-Level Balance of Power

Fourteen military forces independent of Damascus dominate Syria, including Israel, Turkey, Russia, and the United States, alongside various ethnic, sectarian, tribal factions, and extremist groups such as ISIS, complicating security and political resolutions.

Corridors and Trade Wars

• Maritime and land-based corridors.

• The Belt and Road initiative versus the Spice Route.

• Turkish-Caucasian trade routes.

The Arab Lifeline

Amid this complexity, Syria seeks stability. The strategic choice promoted by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states emerges as critical, renouncing ideological and sectarian conflicts in favor of nation-building, economic growth, and prosperity. This pathway is essential for saving Syria, facilitating peaceful transformations, and neutralizing extremism, thus alleviating numerous regional and international conflict drivers. The transformative leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman provides an inspiring model for a renewed Syria, significantly supporting stability over chaos—the final safe haven remaining.