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Three Scenarios for Falling into the Iranian Black Hole Sometimes, military victory is a prelude to political defeat.
Samir al-Taqi Many see this war as nothing more than a final chapter in the erosion of the rule of the mullahs: an authoritarian, corrupt regime, burdened by contradictions, and besieged both from within and from without.But wars are not read through wishes. Regimes may stagger and yet not fall; they may be struck hard, then recoil and harden. Here lies the Iranian paradox: Tehran may lose a great deal, yet it may not collapse. And Washington may win militarily, only to disco
sara john
5 hours ago5 min read


Munich, Europe: From Idle Reassurance to Weaning Itself Off an Unsteady Ally
Samir al-Taqi Europe has long tried to postpone acknowledging a reality that has been clear for two decades: the other side of the Atlantic is no longer a source of strategic and political certainty. The 2026 Munich Security Conference reflected the truth of this European awakening. The shift did not come in the form of a rupture, but rather as a reordering of priorities. Europe has paid a high price to relearn an old—yet newly urgent—wisdom: no one scratches your back like y
sara john
Feb 245 min read


With the collapse of the nuclear ceiling... ambiguity is an international existential crisis.
The end of New START removed the last legal ceiling limiting strategic nuclear proliferation between the United States and Russia. The treaty limited deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 and deployed delivery systems to 700, linking these numbers to mechanisms for data exchange, notifications, and inspections. With its expiration, the risk of mutual nuclear annihilation becomes more imminent, shrouded in uncertainty and danger. The demise of New START reveals two facts: First
sara john
Feb 133 min read


Muscat, the Negotiation of Coercion,So Does Tehran Need War?
Samir al-Taqi, On the canvas of the Muscat negotiations, the regional drama appears in all its dimensions! Formally, we observe positive signals, yet they implicitly conceal deep disagreements. For Tehran does not know what Trump will accept: a narrow temporary agreement, or whether he is inevitably moving toward “settling the situation in its entirety.”Not to mention the اختلاف over the pattern of the solution and its dimensions, the window of diplomacy between America and I
sara john
Feb 135 min read
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