The Saudi Peaceful Offensive: A Strategic Approach to Enhancing Regional Stability

The Saudi Initiative on Syria Opens a Project that Embodies a Regional Strategy and Draws New Contours for the Region

In recent years, Saudi foreign policy has come to represent a new model for approaching Middle Eastern crises, one that moves beyond the logic of direct interventions and sharp alignments in favor of de-escalation and investment in stability. This orientation reached its peak in what has come to be known as the “Saudi peaceful offensive,” expressed in particular in the way the Kingdom has dealt with numerous regional and international crises, foremost among them the Syrian crisis after the fall of the former regime. What, then, is the logic of this peaceful offensive? What are its deeper objectives, and how do its manifestations in the Syrian case actually appear on the ground?

Dr. Samir al-Taqi

What concerns us in this context, however, is the external dimension of the Vision: the realization by the Saudi decision-maker that comprehensive development cannot take place within a turbulent geopolitical vacuum, and that domestic stability is contingent on anchoring itself in sustainable regional stability.

From this point, the notion of a “peaceful offensive” began to crystallize: an intensive external activism—political as well as economic—designed to defuse surrounding crises and to forge new frameworks for cooperation among the states of the region.

If the Vision aims to make the Kingdom a high-level hub for investment, logistics, and tourism, then it necessarily requires a regional environment free of conflict and unrest. Security in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq—and even in Sudan—is no longer viewed merely as a humanitarian or political goal; it has become a precondition for realizing the Vision itself. From this vantage point, Saudi Arabia does not approach regional files through the lens of zero-sum enmities or closed alliances; rather, it operates on the basis of a long-term, intelligent vision that seeks to balance interests and open channels of communication with the states of the region.

First: Vision 2030 as a Strategic Background to the Saudi Peaceful Offensive

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is one of the most ambitious development plans in the Kingdom’s history; its significance lies not only at the domestic level, but also in its regional and international dimensions and implications.

This Vision is an expression of a deep awareness of the transformations the world is undergoing and of the challenges facing the region, and it responds to the Kingdom’s need to build a sustainable developmental model that shields it from the fluctuations of a rent-based economy and qualifies it to become an effective regional power within an integrated and peaceful regional environment.

The pillars of the Vision are embodied in three main axes: a vibrant society, a thriving economy, and an ambitious nation. Each axis branches into major projects, some of them economic (such as the partial privatization of Aramco and the creation of megaprojects like NEOM), some social and cultural (such as support for the arts and cultural openness), and others linked to restructuring state institutions and reforming the public sector.

Saudi Decision-Makers’ Realization That Comprehensive Development Cannot Take Place in a Turbulent Geopolitical Vacuum and That Domestic Stability Depends on Regional Stability

This transformation has been clearly reflected in a series of successive initiatives, whether in the Gulf reconciliation and then toward Iran, or in Sudan and Yemen, or in dealing with international powers on files such as Ukraine and Syria.

In brief, Vision 2030 does not represent merely an economic plan; rather, it is an expression of a comprehensive conception of the Kingdom’s identity, its role, and its position in the international system. It is this vision that has formed the theoretical and practical background of the Saudi “peaceful offensive,” which seeks to recast the region’s balances through development rather than confrontation, and through shared interests rather than ideological alignments.

It plays a pivotal role in resolving conflicts in the region and the world, through the adoption of a new approach based on mediation and political settlements instead of direct military involvement or positioning within rigid blocs.

The contours of this role have become clearly visible in a number of hot files.

At the forefront of these files was the Gulf reconciliation, crowned by the al-ʿUla summit in January 2021, which restored cohesion among the Gulf Cooperation Council states after years of rupture. Then came the historic agreement with Iran in March 2023, brokered by China, confirming that Saudi Arabia has come to believe in the value of dialogue even with its traditional adversaries.

Second: The Saudi Role in Mediating the Settlement of Conflicts in the Region

Saudi Arabia Does Not Approach Regional Files with a Zero-Sum or Closed-Alliance Mentality, but with a Long-Term, Intelligent Vision to Achieve a Balance of Interests

Jeddah hosted a series of negotiations on the Sudanese crisis in 2023, in an attempt to consolidate the truce amid the conflict between factions in Sudan, with the Kingdom also supporting humanitarian efforts at the international level. Saudi Arabia actively participated in efforts to end the war in Ukraine and hosted the Jeddah Summit in August 2023, which brought together around forty countries—including major Western nations such as Germany and France, as well as Global South powers like China and India—in an effort to build new consensus among the conflicting parties and launch new dynamics of regional, Arab, and international alliances.

Fourth: Saudi Mediation in Syrian Affairs after the Fall of the Assad Regime

Following the fall of the former Syrian regime in December 2012, the Kingdom swiftly moved to assert its presence in the Syrian file—not as a partisan actor, but as a potential sponsor for Syria’s reintegration and rehabilitation. Technically and politically, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs redirected the Kingdom’s compass toward a political solution, emphasizing the preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity and supporting the work of the Syrian Constitutional Committee under UN auspices in Geneva. In this context, a Syrian delegation visited Riyadh in February 2023 to discuss key issues between the two countries.

The Kingdom also supported Syria’s reintegration into the global financial system by facilitating Damascus’s participation in the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, in addition to cooperating with the World Health Organization in programs aimed at rebuilding Syria’s health sector. Saudi initiatives also extended to combating drug trafficking, promoting economic stability, and restructuring the healthcare sector to advance sustainable development across the country.

Fourth: The Geopolitical Context and the Struggle over Syria

After the fall of the former regime, foreign interventions did not subside; rather, Syria became an open arena for indirect conflict over influence and regional power projection. In this context, Arab demands arose for Syria’s reinstatement to its seat in the Arab League—a move that was later realized as part of a broader vision to open dialogue channels and reduce security and political tensions in the region.

This Saudi role constitutes a fundamental pillar in rebuilding the Syrian state and reinforcing its sovereignty over its territory through a commitment to a political solution free from the logic of blocs or regional polarization.

Fifth: The Challenges Facing the Saudi Initiative

There is no doubt that Saudi mediation efforts proceed as part of a broader strategy to confront domestic and regional instability. Although progress remains gradual, the Kingdom understands that supporting Syria’s recovery process requires sustained political, institutional, and social commitment.

There is, therefore, little doubt that the Jeddah regional summit has a clear interest in the success of this Saudi reconciliatory and peaceful role; indeed, it seeks to accompany and reinforce it. At the same time, the international dispute over sanctions on Syria remains a source of concern and an obstacle to Saudi efforts to open up on this file, since the financial restrictions imposed on reconstruction are still of limited effectiveness when measured against the essential needs of economic recovery after the devastation.

Nevertheless, the Saudi approach addresses these challenges through a gradual method that combines pushing toward reconstruction in a way that serves the national interest with avoiding a confrontation with the international system. This, in turn, allows all Syrians, over time and in a balanced way, to become part of that system’s equilibrium.

Sixth: The Opportunities and Regional Repercussions of the Saudi Approach

One of the most important opportunities created by the Saudi initiative is the restoration of Arab leadership in a broader project of revival across the Levant, and the consolidation of the Kingdom’s role as a soft power in the entire region. This policy also makes it possible to reinsert Syria into its Arab and international surroundings and to create a new developmental environment in the Arab East, while building a network of contemporary projects for international and regional development and limiting Israeli attacks on Syria, in exchange for expanding regional and international partnerships on the basis of mutual interests.

In this way, the initiative opens wide horizons for a comprehensive Saudi strategic vision regarding the Syrian file, one that is in harmony with the qualitative transformation in the Kingdom’s role and regional management, and that sketches new contours for the region as a whole. The Syrian arena also offers a clear example of how this approach prevents the country from sliding once more into arenas of regional or international conflict and instead enables the construction of broader understandings with various domestic and external actors on the basis of shared interests.

The initiative, in turn, requires a Syrian commitment to a national rescue project; it does not simply signify the formal return of the regime to the region, but rather its engagement in a regional vision built on partnerships rather than enmity, and on development rather than the reproduction of conflict. The success of this trajectory would ultimately feed into re-projecting the Kingdom’s role, not only as a pivotal and stable state, but as a state of stability that possesses a genuine project for building a new future for the region.