Warnings for al-Sheibani in Paris: A Fateful Crossroads

By Samir al-Taqi

Why did Barack and Macron summon al-Sheibani to Paris—with Israeli minister Ron Dermer at the table?*A seasoned former French diplomat explained: “Paris believes Damascus assumes we do not see what it is really saying and doing.” In fact, French intelligence is impressively familiar with every Syrian promise and maneuver, much as a property dealer who sells the same plot repeatedly just to pocket the deposit—never intending to transfer ownership.

1. Damascus, the Regional Linchpin

For years Syrian diplomacy treated the broader Middle East like a garden—plucking a flower from every bed. Yet the region smells more of battlefields than of jasmine. In the Levant, whoever dominates Damascus automatically projects power into Lebanon, Jordan, and, potentially, Iraq. As Syrian sovereignty erodes, competing lances tear at its body.

2. Israel’s Post-7 October Red Lines

Since 7 October, Israel insists on guaranteeing its own security—no intermediaries, no paper promises. That is why Jerusalem bristled at Turkish officers attending the first Baku talks, forced them out of the second round, and again in Paris. Israel will not tolerate a Salafi-jihadi force trained and armed by Turkey on its border; instead, it wants direct control of intelligence operations inside Syria.

3. Turkey’s Strategic Calculus

Ankara, for its part, feels entitled to consolidate its Syrian gains and seeks a formal U.S. mandate to lead the country’s post-war recovery. The Kurdish issue no longer suffices as a casus belli east of the Euphrates; Turkey has already launched a domestic reconciliation, granting Kurds constitutional rights and decentralized administration. Nor is profit the driver—UN estimates say Syria would need 15–20 years of rebuilding merely to match the economy of a single Turkish province. What matters is grand strategy: after extending influence in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Black Sea, anchoring itself in Syria would crown Turkey the regional “balancing power.”

4. Europe Re-enters the Eastern Mediterranean

Shaken by global instability, Europe can no longer ignore its vital near abroad. France, armed with historic ties to Syrian communities (especially Kurds) and alarmed by jihadist currents in Lebanon, sees a chance to complement U.S. policy as Turkish-Israeli rivalry intensifies. Paris views unchecked Turkish moves—and the vacuum around a weakened Damascus—as direct threats to Mediterranean energy routes and to Lebanon’s brittle equilibrium.

5. From Baku to Paris: Mounting Pressure

A recent “get-acquainted” video summit joined the Syrian and French presidents with their Greek, Cypriot, and Lebanese counterparts, signaling hard red lines on the East Med, energy, and Ankara’s role. Meanwhile, Israeli, French, and EU pressure pushed Damascus to accept Israeli terms negotiated in Baku. Then came the Suwayda massacres, which shattered what remained of international trust in Syria’s ability to police rogue militias and to engage seriously on Donald Trump’s five Riyadh conditions—especially security for Israel and genuine domestic reconciliation.

Reports of Turkish experts guiding drones against anti-regime forces (and nearly clashing with Israeli units) further inflamed Ankara–Tel Aviv tensions.

6. Macron’s Hurdles in Washington

At that point, former U.S. envoy Ehud Barak’s outreach diverged from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s harder line. Macron raced to dissuade Washington from giving Turkey a blank check—or handing Damascus one—before the regime proves it can truly deliver on Trump’s demands. A direct Israel-Turkey confrontation now seems thinkable.

7. The Paris Meeting: Linking Deeds to Words

Thus the Paris gathering—Dermer, the French foreign minister, Barak, and al-Sheibani—served as a stark warning. Core message: words must translate into actions. Issue #1 is Turkey; issue #2 is a new social contract for all Syrians. Damascus has agreed in principle to a wide demilitarized buffer zone and partial Israeli withdrawal from post-Assad gains, but asks for time to sort its internal house and define relations with Ankara. Paris knows the clock is ticking.

Years ago, Bashar al-Assad reportedly told negotiators: “It’s a Mickey Mouse game: let the other side leave optimistic, then we’ll blame circumstances.”Syria no longer enjoys that luxury. Diplomacy, stripped of authentic strategic decisions rooted in an Arab core, rings hollow—and every accord collapses without neutral peace and credible follow-through. Without its Arab depth, Syria remains adrift while the entire region teeters on a knife-edge.

*Barack refers here to former Israeli prime minister and envoy Ehud Barak, not the U.S. president.